The futures market has been discounting the unstoppable rise in electricity prices for some time . And, as the days go by, not only does energy become more expensive, but the situation of crisis and scarcity continues over time. At least, that is what the corresponding reference for the old continent anticipates, the European Energy Exchange (EEX, for its acronym in English).
The main conclusions drawn from the indicator is that, in the Gallic country, the pockets are going to have to face a costly last stretch of 2022 in terms of the energy basket and, furthermore, this situation is going to continue also during the next winter, next year.
In this way, in France, prices are not only going to increase in the most immediate weeks and months, but the forecast is that energy costs will continue to be well above normal throughout 2023. This implies that there are, at least, six quarters of skyrocketing figures (the remaining two of the year and the four of the next).
The trend has been reflected this Friday in the new record reached, when the barrier of 1,000 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) was broken in France for the whole of 2023, according to EEX.
When breaking down the figures by quarters, the market shows that the worst months are going to be the coldest, even doubling prices between the warmest and least warm periods. Currently, futures for the next quarter, October-December, take electricity to 1,620 euros per megawatt hour.
According to the same indicator, the figures will continue to grow in the first quarter of 2023, January-March (up to 1,850 euros per megawatt hour), will drop during the second and third quarters (between 600 and 700 euros on average), but will return to go up in the fourth, that is, during the winter of next year. Again, this time, above the level of 1,000 euros, standing at 1,200 euros/MWh.
France is struggling to get electricity from its main energy resource
The main problem that the neighboring country is having is the difficulties it is encountering when resorting to its main energy resource: nuclear. France has 56 reactors in operation , although some of them are in the revision or sanitation phase. This means that electricity generation through this source has dropped considerably.
Apart from shutdowns in some reactors, high temperatures are not helping. The heat and the increase in degrees in the water of the rivers prevent the cooling systems of the nuclear power plants from doing their job, which adds to the aforementioned difficulties. France is going through this situation, precisely, in the midst of an energy crisis. Your main resource is diminished at a time of greatest need.
As if that were not enough, Nord Stream is going to stop the flow of gas next Wednesday, August 31 for three days. Gazprom alleges the need to carry out the technical service. However, fears hover over when and how fuel flow will resume. The previous time the Russian company closed gas pipelines, they returned to pumping at 20% of their capacity.